Friday, February 16, 2007
iPhone? No Thanks
As my current mobile phone contract winds down, I have started a casual search for a new mobile carrier. With all the hoopla regarding the iPhone deal with Cingular/At&t it was on my radar. Priced at around $500 dollars Apple can forget about my business. I am quite content with my iPod and do not see a need to have a cell phone that's also an mp3 player. For 500 dollars I might as well get myself a swanky phone upgrade with a carrier and buy myself an iPod nano while treating my friends out to a crazy night on the town. For 100-200 dollars you can get a pretty nifty cell that takes low quality pictures, functions well as a phone, and looks very sleek. I predict that the iPhone will not move in high numbers. Spoiled rich kids and ubertechnophiles will run to Cingular on launch day but typical consumers as well as businesses will stay away. Apple is betting on style over function which is a dangerous game with mobile phones. I want my phone to work. I want to be able to dial numbers without looking and if I am going to spend over 300 dollars I want my phone to sync with my e-mail while allowing me to send quick responses. I can not imagine the frustrations that will be experienced by those who attempt to write text messages or emails that are longer than a few abbreviations unless apple has an innovative new entry method. So while I may be slightly jealous of the trendy folks chatting on their iPhones later in the year, my practical side won't mind.
Vista Sales Lower Than Expected
In what comes as a complete shock, NPD reported that first week retail sales of Windows Vista were almost 60% lower than the first week retail sales of Windows XP back in 2001. Despite the millions Microsoft has dumped into a marketing campaign for Vista, it's been a while since they've released a product that had so few compelling new features.
I guess the problem is that Windows XP was just too good. Granted, XP has had it's problems, various security flaws, etc but when it comes down to it, XP is a good OS. By comparison to what was available previously, namely windows 98, XP was amazing. Now Vista has come along and Microsoft is trying in vain to convince consumers that it is worth another couple hundred dollars to upgrade. This was a much easier argument to make for XP. Users of Windows 95/98 knew the operating system was crap, you could see it on a daily basis. Most users were very familiar with the Blue Screen of Death, which had a nasty habit of appearing when you were almost done writing a long document that you hadn't saved yet. The promise of increased stability and productivity that XP offered made it an easy sell.
Making and argument for upgrading to Vista is much more of a challenge. Most computer users, who use their computer for email, Office, maybe some photoshop, etc could go on using XP for years without a problem. So why should they upgrade to Vista? Really, the answer is that they shouldn't. The new hardware requirements mean that Vista won't run on half the computers anyway and XP does it's job. Upgrading to Vista is just an unnecessary headache, especially since many driver and software compatibility issues still remain.
That is not to say that Vista is a failed product. Everyone will eventually end up running Vista, it will just take many more years than the execs at Microsoft have forecasted. Retail sales of Vista will likely remain slow for a while with very few upgrades and most of the sales coming from copies purchased with a new PC. Corporations are where most of Vista's sales will come from for the foreseeable future. Many IT departments will find the new security features available in Vista to be attractive to help protect their networks form viruses and such. As IT departments start switching their companies over, users will start to become more accustomed to Vista and will see more of a reason to switch to Vista on their home machines, or more likely purchase a new computer with Vista.
Future sales of Vista are going to be strongly linked to new hardware sales. Most individuals won't bother upgrading their existing computers and many corporations are likely to pass until their next upgrade cycle. As a result, look for Vista sales to be sluggish for at least the next couple of quarters.
I guess the problem is that Windows XP was just too good. Granted, XP has had it's problems, various security flaws, etc but when it comes down to it, XP is a good OS. By comparison to what was available previously, namely windows 98, XP was amazing. Now Vista has come along and Microsoft is trying in vain to convince consumers that it is worth another couple hundred dollars to upgrade. This was a much easier argument to make for XP. Users of Windows 95/98 knew the operating system was crap, you could see it on a daily basis. Most users were very familiar with the Blue Screen of Death, which had a nasty habit of appearing when you were almost done writing a long document that you hadn't saved yet. The promise of increased stability and productivity that XP offered made it an easy sell.
Making and argument for upgrading to Vista is much more of a challenge. Most computer users, who use their computer for email, Office, maybe some photoshop, etc could go on using XP for years without a problem. So why should they upgrade to Vista? Really, the answer is that they shouldn't. The new hardware requirements mean that Vista won't run on half the computers anyway and XP does it's job. Upgrading to Vista is just an unnecessary headache, especially since many driver and software compatibility issues still remain.
That is not to say that Vista is a failed product. Everyone will eventually end up running Vista, it will just take many more years than the execs at Microsoft have forecasted. Retail sales of Vista will likely remain slow for a while with very few upgrades and most of the sales coming from copies purchased with a new PC. Corporations are where most of Vista's sales will come from for the foreseeable future. Many IT departments will find the new security features available in Vista to be attractive to help protect their networks form viruses and such. As IT departments start switching their companies over, users will start to become more accustomed to Vista and will see more of a reason to switch to Vista on their home machines, or more likely purchase a new computer with Vista.
Future sales of Vista are going to be strongly linked to new hardware sales. Most individuals won't bother upgrading their existing computers and many corporations are likely to pass until their next upgrade cycle. As a result, look for Vista sales to be sluggish for at least the next couple of quarters.
Wii Play Review
Wii Play includes 9 mini games that utilize the Wii-mote's gyroscopes and pointing ability.#2 Find Mii: Nintendo's attempt at Where's Waldo.
#3 Table Tennis: Pong with a spiffier interface.
#4 Pose Mii: Tilt the controller to match the orientation.
#5 Laser Hockey: Table Hockey
#6 Billiards: A rather inventive way of using the Wii-Mote to shoot some pool
#7 Fishing: Move the controller around to tempt the fishes and see if you can't get a good catch.
#8 Charge: Hold the controller sideways and tilt it forward to increase speed and tilt left or right to turn the cow that you're riding.
#9 Tanks!: Steer with the Nunchuck or the Direction Pad and try to kill all the other tanks before they kill you.
There's not too much replay value here but $50 dollars gets you another Wii-mote and this game. If you only have one remote, I say you might as well get it and add to your mini games collection, but buy it for the second controller, not the game.
2K Sports Football Has Returned, Somehow.
Take Two announced at the end of January that, after taking a short hiatus, a football game will be returning to their 2k sports lineup. I have to say that I was somewhat excited to hear this as I was a fan of the old ESPN NFL 2k5. I'm glad to see that some competition is returning to the market for football games. Personally, I think EA has gotten lazy. The past couple versions of Madden have mostly been $50 ($60 for a next-gen console) roster updates, the game hasn't done anything really innovative in years.
The news has left me wondering though. The reason that football was dropped from the 2k sports lineup to begin with was the licensing contract that the NFL and its players union signed with EA back in '04-05. The contract granted EA exclusive rights to all NFL players, teams and stadiums for 5 years. Now my math may not be great but it would seem to me that 5 years from 2004 would be 2009 and Take2's new game is coming out the summer of 2007. It seems clear that the new game can not use anything related to the NFL. The title of the game, "All-Pro Football 2K8," seems to confirm that this game is not based on the NFL as it clearly does not make any reference to it.
It would seem that the players, teams, and stadiums that are used would have to be made up or not be under the control of the NFL. There are many options for how they could handle this problem, use made up player names, teams, etc, maybe mix in some retired NFL players who aren't in the players' union anymore, hell they could even base the rosters on the Canadian Football League if they wanted. They could do any or all these things, but that doesn't mean people would want to play it. When you go to play an NFL based game, you already know who the good players are, you know what team you want to play as and who the good players on that team are. Not having the rosters that everyone already knows puts the game at a big disadvantage from the start.
This may actually be good news though. The game is at a disadvantage and the designers at Take2 know it. If they have any hope of competing with Madden, they need to put out a truly amazing game based on game-play and fun factor alone. If they can successfully pull it off, then I'll play Falcons vs Schmangi instead of Jets vs Eagles. I don't think the same can be said about the current iterations of Madden.
The news has left me wondering though. The reason that football was dropped from the 2k sports lineup to begin with was the licensing contract that the NFL and its players union signed with EA back in '04-05. The contract granted EA exclusive rights to all NFL players, teams and stadiums for 5 years. Now my math may not be great but it would seem to me that 5 years from 2004 would be 2009 and Take2's new game is coming out the summer of 2007. It seems clear that the new game can not use anything related to the NFL. The title of the game, "All-Pro Football 2K8," seems to confirm that this game is not based on the NFL as it clearly does not make any reference to it.
It would seem that the players, teams, and stadiums that are used would have to be made up or not be under the control of the NFL. There are many options for how they could handle this problem, use made up player names, teams, etc, maybe mix in some retired NFL players who aren't in the players' union anymore, hell they could even base the rosters on the Canadian Football League if they wanted. They could do any or all these things, but that doesn't mean people would want to play it. When you go to play an NFL based game, you already know who the good players are, you know what team you want to play as and who the good players on that team are. Not having the rosters that everyone already knows puts the game at a big disadvantage from the start.
This may actually be good news though. The game is at a disadvantage and the designers at Take2 know it. If they have any hope of competing with Madden, they need to put out a truly amazing game based on game-play and fun factor alone. If they can successfully pull it off, then I'll play Falcons vs Schmangi instead of Jets vs Eagles. I don't think the same can be said about the current iterations of Madden.
Guitar Hero 2
Guitar Hero 2 gets my vote for funnest new game. I've played through Gears of War, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, Kingdom Hearts 2, Rainbow Six Las Vegas, and Wii Sports but Guitar Hero 2 beats them all in fun and replayability. Guitar Hero is quite Wii-like in that non gamers will give it go and discover that they really enjoy rocking out to this game. If you haven't tried it yet, go out and get it. It's definitely another reason to hold onto your PS2 until it comes out for the other consoles.
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